Why Is The Current US Shutdown Different (as well as Harder to Resolve)?

Placeholder image Government shutdown illustration

Shutdowns have become a recurring element in American political life – but this one feels particularly intractable because of shifting political forces and bad blood among the two parties.

Certain federal operations face a temporary halt, and about 750,000 people likely to be placed on furlough without pay since Republicans and Democrats can't agree regarding budget legislation.

Votes aimed at ending the deadlock have repeatedly failed, with little visibility on a clear resolution path this time because each side – including the President – perceive advantages in digging in.

These are several key factors in which things feel different currently.

First, For Democrats, it's about Trump – beyond healthcare issues

Democratic supporters have insisted for months for their representatives adopt stronger opposition against the Trump administration. Currently Democratic leaders has a chance to demonstrate their responsiveness.

In March, the Senate's top Democrat was fiercely criticised for helping pass GOP budget legislation thus preventing a shutdown in the spring. This time he's holding firm.

This presents an opportunity for Democrats to demonstrate they can take back certain authority from a presidency that has moved aggressively on its agenda.

Refusing to back the GOP budget proposal carries electoral dangers as citizens generally will grow frustrated as the dispute drags on and consequences begin to mount.

The Democrats are using the budget standoff to put a spotlight on ending healthcare financial support and Republican-approved government healthcare cuts for the poor, both facing public opposition.

They are also trying to curtail executive utilization of his executive powers to cancel or delay funding authorized legislatively, a practice demonstrated with foreign aid and various federal programs.

Second, For Republicans, it's an opportunity

The President along with a senior aide have openly indicated their perspective that they smell a chance to advance further the cutbacks in government employment that have featured in the Republican's second presidency so far.

The nation's leader personally said last week that the shutdown had afforded him a "unique chance", and that he would look to reduce funding for "Democrat agencies".

The White House stated they would face a "challenging responsibility" involving significant workforce reductions to maintain critical federal operations if the shutdown continued. The Press Secretary said this was just "budgetary responsibility".

The scope of the potential lay-offs remains unclear, though administration officials have been consulting with federal budget authorities, the budgeting office, which is headed by the administration's budget director.

The administration's financial chief has previously declared the halting of government financial support for Democratic-run parts the opposition party, including New York City and Illinois' largest city.

3. There's little trust between both parties

While previous shutdowns typically involved late-night talks between the two parties in an effort to get government services running again, currently there seems little of the same spirit of collaboration this time.

Instead, there is rancour. Political tensions continued over the weekend, with Republicans and Democrats blaming each other for causing the impasse.

House Speaker a Republican, charged opposition members of not being serious about negotiating, and holding out over a deal "to get political cover".

Meanwhile, the Senate leader made similar charges at the other side, saying that a Republican promise regarding health funding talks once the government reopens cannot be trusted.

The administration leader personally has escalated tensions through sharing a computer-created controversial depiction featuring the opposition leader along with another senior in the House, where the representative appears wearing traditional headwear and facial hair.

The representative with party colleagues denounced this as discriminatory, which was denied by the Vice-President.

4. The US economy is fragile

Analysts expect approximately two-fifths of the federal workforce – more than 800,000 people – to be put on unpaid leave due to the shutdown.

That will depress spending – and also have wider ramifications, including halted environmental approvals, patent approvals, interrupted vendor payments and other kinds of federal operations connected to commercial interests comes to a halt.

A shutdown also injects new uncertainty within economic systems currently experiencing disruption by changes ranging from tariffs, earlier cuts to government spending, enforcement actions and technological advancements.

Economic forecasters project that it could shave as much as 0.2 percentage points off US economic growth for each week it lasts.

However, economic activity generally rebounds most of that lost activity after a shutdown ends, similar to recovery patterns caused by a natural disaster.

This might explain partially why the stock market have shown limited reaction to the ongoing impasse.

On the other hand, analysts say should administration officials implement his threat of mass firings, the damage could be more long-lasting.

Jasmine Silva DVM
Jasmine Silva DVM

A seasoned legal journalist with over a decade of experience covering court cases and legislative changes.