Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
